Nifty Calculator – Jan 2024 – Put within the numbers and discover your Nifty ranges | Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh

For all of the tremendous bullish and bearish readers.

Please ship me a guesstimate sheet which takes it to 21000 and 23000

This is an effective time for train. Can mail me on nooreshtech@analyseindia.com

NIFTY CALCULATOR JAN 2024 – Click Here

Here is a sheet the place the anticipated worth is precisely identical as closing costs, obtain the calculator beneath and enter costs within the ‘Expected Price’ column and get anticipated Nifty degree

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Download – Nifty-Calculator-Jan 2023

Interesting Observations

  • Top 5 shares – Reliance, HDFC Bank, ICICI financial institution, Infosys, ITC = 39.89%vs 40.27% of Nifty in Dec 2023
  • Top 10 shares represent 57.15%vs 57.55% of the Nifty in Dec 2023
  • Top 20 shares represent 75.28%vs 75.71% of the Nifty in Dec 2023
  • hdfc financial institution ltd is the highest weight at 11.57% vs 13.52% of the Nifty in Nov 2023 (After merger of Hdfc twins), adopted by Reliance at 10.16%, 21.73%of the Index.
  • Reliance + HDFC, 21.73%of Nifty (Hope you get why Nifty doesn’t depict GDP. 21% of India’s GDP isn’t equal to Reliance +HDFC)
  • Bottom 25 shares have lower than 1%weight and whole weight at 18.6% vs 18.13% in Dec 2023.
  • Reliance Had a demerger of Jio Financial providers which is listed individually now.

Sectoral Observations

Nifty Calculator – Jan 2024 – Put within the numbers and discover your Nifty ranges | Technical Analysis of Indian Equities by Nooresh

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  • Banks and Financials dropped from current excessive of 38.45% in Apr 2023 to 33.01% now for previous two months. Least weight in final 4 years.
  • energy at 2.83% elevated from 2% May 2023.
  • Oil and Gas from 14.78% in June 2022 to 12.67%. ‘Oil and Gas’ is now renamed as ‘Oil, Gas and Consumable fuels’. Coal India is now labeled below Oil, Gas, and Consumable fuels. Earlier it was labeled below Metals. IOC out from the index which was labeled below Oil and Gas.
  • metals from 3.17% in Feb 2023 to three.75%. Coal India is now labeled below ‘Oil, Gas and Consumable Fuels’. Earlier it was below Metals.
  • IT weights elevated from 12.64% in June 2023 to 14.19% which elevated after 3 months of fixed weight 2023.
  • car at 6.71% Increasing steadily from previous few months.
  • Consumer Durables weight decreased barely to three.02% in Jan 2024 from 3.18% in Sep 2023.
  • Healthcare at 4.3% elevated barely from 3.98% in Dec 2023.
  • development materials is at 2.08% growing always from previous few months
  • FMCG now at 8.78% lowering slowly in comparison with previous months from excessive of 9.97 May 2023.

Some adjustments in classification:

  1. Consumer items sector is now divided into Consumer Durables and FMCG.
  2. ‘Oil and Gas’ now renamed as ‘Oil, Gas and consumable fuels’. Coal India now labeled below Oil, Gas and Consumable fuels. Earlier it was labeled below metals. IOC out from index which was labeled below Oil and Gas
  3. ‘Automobile’ Sector renamed as ‘Automobile and Auto Components’.
  4. ‘Metals’ renamed as ‘Metals and Mining’. Coal India not labeled below this sector.
  5. ‘Cement and Cement Products’ sector renamed as ‘Construction Material’.
  6. ‘Pharma’ sector renamed as ‘Healthcare’ and Apollo hospital is included within the index below this sector.
  7. ‘Fertilizers and Pesticides’ sector renamed as ‘Chemicals’.
  8. LTImindtree Ltd now part of Nifty.
  9. Demerged entity from Reliance, Jio monetary is not going to be in Nifty after its itemizing

Do test this video on Nifty Calculator – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbmhiLXYx2k

What is a Nifty Calculator?

-> As per the weightage given by NSE for Nifty shares we’ve created the Nifty Calculator.

-> Change the anticipated worth and the anticipated Nifty will change accordingly

-> Create 3 completely different sheets for your self–

Pessimistic (the place you place the worst doable costs you suppose. Default 10% down)

Optimistic (the most effective costs doable. Default 10% up)

Neutral/Rational/Technical/Fundamental (costs on any reasoning)

Please Note as weights change day-after-day by a small margin this is not going to give an correct estimate however might be approximate.

How to Guess?

  • Everyone has a view on Nifty primarily based on Macro, PE, Valuations, Technicals, Waves, and so forth. Try to grill it all the way down to the constituents. It needs to be a mirrored image of your precise guesstimate.
  • Just estimating wild situations on the highest 20 shares is sufficient given the 75-80% weight.
  • Start with altering the default fall to 5-10-15-20-40-80 or rise to 5-10-20-40-80.
  • Then change shares that you just suppose might not do the default transfer.
  • Also do keep in mind there may be not a direct correlation between the economic system with the Nifty.

Things to Note

  • One of the explanations we preserve posting that is to make an precise unbiased guess each month/quarter.
  • There have been quite a few warnings as to how markets are overheated. Understanding the constituents means that you can notice how Nifty isn’t presupposed to mirror the Economy.
  • Nifty is now at its all time excessive,
  • Putting within the numbers seems to be like we’re going to keep sideways for a while. What’s your name?

Thank you for studying the article

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