Buying Govt Bonds at the moment juncture

Will shopping for Govt Bonds now and offloading them after 2024 elections would fetch good positive aspects?

Hmmm… What is the thought course of behind this?
What components are you contemplating?

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Main is that rates of interest would possibly come down after elections.

Also like now 10 yr bond pursuits are low in comparison with the three month / 2 yr which result in fall of bond costs of the long run ones…possibly if FED does not hike rates of interest additional then it’s the greatest time to purchase authorities bonds. …the long run ones

We can have two advantages,

  1. If FED minimize charges, then the now long run bonds worth will improve…i’m speaking about 30-40% varieties as 1-2% rate of interest cuts can have an excellent affect on the long run bonds.

  2. There is a few factor referred to as Yield Curve Inversion which might be good indicator of a recession and presently…I has been 12-13 months since inverted…in the course of the previous a long time it has signaled 8 instances which means the yield curved inverted 8 instances and all of the 8 instances it was adopted by a recession, In case of recession the bond costs will go even larger as everybody would rush in the direction of them for a safer possibility.

I imply its all simply deman and provide…I’ve bought to know all this about now…however i’m ubale to persuade my father to tug out cash market transfer in the direction of gsecs :frowning:

let’s examine the way it seems…


Thanks for the data :+1: What is your supply in regards to the 30-40% acquire if rates of interest fall 1-2%?

Might not occur instantly after election however finally it ought to occur trying on the total downwards trajectory since the previous couple of a long time… No govt needs to pay excessive curiosity on it is Debt…

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Is there any weblog obtainable wrt gsec bidding in zerodha.

Search gsec on this discussion board solely a really detailed submit is accessible

If rates of interest have been to fall, the worth of a bond with an extended period would rise greater than a bond with a shorter period. , if rates of interest have been to fall by 1%, the 10-year bond with a period of just below 9 years would rise in worth by roughly 9%.

As of December 13, 2023, Fed price, was 5.25%–5.5%, And SVB went down when Fed charges have been 3.4% varieties, it is potential to see a 30-40 % acquire within the worth however I believe its extra potential if Fed cuts aggressively and whether it is coupled with recession then its much more sensible.


Thanks!! Can you pls quote the supply just like the article or video and so on the place you discovered this data…

Below is a hyperlink to a workshop cunducted by Abid on Government Bonds, please undergo the video for a transparent understanding in any other case the hyperlink is with precise timestamps the place he mentions (additionally calculated within the previos sections of that video) about 0.03 % change in curiosity. can have 0.5 % change in long run GSEC’s ltp (on this case it was a 2060 GSEC).

My understanding comes from, present Fed charges at 5.25 – 5.5 %…ltp of longterm bonds are effectively beneath their par worth (face worth which is 100) as little as 90 (662GS2051 is at 90.1 as of at present) and when curiosity come all the way down to their regular ranges… ltp of those bonds would rise and would possibly go as excessive as 120 (1018GS2026 is at 121.31 as of at present), once more undergo the video you’ll get a greater image.

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