GEP Global Supply Chain Index Signals Prolonged Manufacturing Downturn Through 2024

The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index, a key indicator monitoring demand, shortages, transportation prices, inventories, and backlogs based mostly on a month-to-month survey of 27,000 companies, remained in unfavourable territory at -0.34 in November. This signifies an eighth consecutive month of spare capability in international provide chains, suggesting a persistent manufacturing droop into 2024.

Todd Bremer, Vice President of Consulting at GEP, highlighted the continued extra vendor capability, signaling that the tip to the worldwide manufacturing recession remains to be distant. North America stands out in resisting international financial headwinds, whereas Asia’s sustained extra provider capability provides producers leverage to drive down costs in 2024.

GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index

November noticed a continued weak spot in demand for uncooked supplies, parts, and commodities, with North America displaying indicators of restoration. Output and new orders at intermediate items makers within the US improved. Conversely, Europe confronted a extreme demand droop, and Asia skilled one of many biggest levels of underutilized provider capability because the post-pandemic period started, posing challenges for the worldwide manufacturing outlook.

Key Findings for November 2023:

– DEMAND: Despite a softer downturn, weak spot in demand endured globally, with North America and Asia displaying much less aggressive cuts to buying in comparison with appreciable declines in Europe.
– INVENTORIES: Global companies stay cautious about build up shares, with stock managers reluctant to carry surplus inventory in warehouses.
– MATERIAL SHORTAGES: Reports of merchandise shortages fell in November and remained at their lowest since January 2020.
– LABOR SHORTAGES: Reports of backlogs as a result of labor unavailability remained traditionally subdued, indicating unconstrained manufacturing capacities.
– TRANSPORTATION: Global transportation prices stabilized, holding near the long-term common in November.

Regional Supply Chain Volatility:

– NORTH AMERICA: The index rose to -0.21, its highest degree since April, suggesting that the manufacturing downturn has handed its peak within the US.
– EUROPE: The index rose to -0.85, indicating important financial weak spot and a looming recession for the continent.
– UK: An enhance within the index to -0.58 tentatively means that the UK’s economic system might fare higher than a few of its European friends, however suppliers nonetheless expertise appreciable spare capability.
– ASIA: The index rose to -0.24, nonetheless indicating one of many biggest levels of vendor spare capability within the post-pandemic period.

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