News Fall Out Forex Crude Oil Forecast: Rally Stumbles on API Inventory Build, OPEC Report

Crude Oil Forecast: Rally Stumbles on API Inventory Build, OPEC Report



Crude Oil, API Inventory, Economic Demand – Talking Points

  • Crude oil rally pauses after weekly API reveals large stockpiles construct
  • OPEC month-to-month report trims oil demand outlook, including headwinds
  • RSI indicators that costs could also be overextended above the 80 deal with

Crude oil costs pulled again barely in a single day after a US report confirmed a big construct in stockpiles. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 5.213 million barrel construct for the week ending October 8. That is the third weekly stock construct reported by the API. Energy merchants will shift their focus to the upcoming Energy Information Administration’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report the place analysts count on to see a construct of simply over half one million barrels for the week ending October 8, based on a Bloomberg survey.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) launched its Monthly Oil Market Report, which trimmed its world demand outlook for this yr. The group lowered its 2021 demand forecast for oil from 5.96 million barrels per day (bpd) to five.82 bpd. The 4.2 million bpd forecast for 2022 was unchanged from its September report. Delta variant-driven outbreaks in the summertime months have been answerable for the downward revision.

However, OPEC did notice a doable tailwind for oil costs resulting from rising natural gas costs. The vitality crunch throughout Asia and Europe despatched costs for the heating fuel sore this yr. US costs are additionally greater, partially resulting from export demand from these vitality crunches. UK pure fuel costs are up almost 300% for the yr, though the meteoric rise seems to be taking a breather.

That rise is incentivizing some vitality producers to change to crude and Brent oil merchandise. That stated, if pure fuel costs proceed to rise, it could possible drag oil costs greater alongside. The EIA will report weekly US pure fuel shares tonight. Analysts count on a 94.58 billion cubic toes (bcf) construct. A bigger-than-expected construct might even see costs ease, which may ease demand for crude oil from vitality producers.

Crude Oil Technical Forecast

Prices are hovering simply above the psychologically imposing 80 deal with. The 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the late July to August transfer capped upside motion earlier this week. Bulls might even see that as a degree to beat earlier than transferring greater. The RSI oscillator is in overbought territory on the every day time-frame, suggesting costs might have to chill for a interval earlier than resuming the previous uptrend.

Crude Oil Daily Chart

crude oil forecast

Chart created with TradingView

— Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Thomas, use the feedback part beneath or @FxWestwater on Twitter



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